Fueling this ad spending is the battle for one-party control of both houses of Congress. The most competitive political landscape in the last 10 years has unleashed a flood of television advertising over the last three months. During the first quarter of 2006, CMAG reported $6.5 million was spent in federal political TV advertising. Current CMAG data through Aug. 13, 2006 shows that federal political television ad spending has skyrocketed to over $83 million. Based on the current pace of advertising, the approaching competitive primaries, and the overall political landscape, CMAG forecasts an additional $400 million in federal TV advertising before Election Day 2006.

“It’s clear that with the significant ad spending thus far in 2006, campaigns and outside groups are not waiting until Labor Day to get their messages out,” said Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of CMAG. “They are looking to make an impact early and are primarily using TV as the weapon of choice.”

The costliest federal race to date was the special election to replace Congressman Duke Cunningham in California’s 50th Congressional District. From Feb. 6, 2006 to the conclusion of the race on June 6, 2006, $13 million was spent on television advertising. The National Republican Congressional Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent more than $7 million combined in local television advertising attempting to win this seat.

The top dozen U.S. Senate races in the country, based on ad spending, have already generated over $44 million in television advertising since the first ad aired in July 2005. The most expensive race at this point recently concluded in Tennessee. Three Republicans battled for their party’s nomination in the primary and spent over $5 million in the process. Congressman Harold Ford Jr., the sole Democrat in the primary, added over $1 million in television advertising in what was, for the most part, an uncontested primary – much of which was direct criticism of the oil industry and gas prices.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska, Connecticut, Virginia, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington round out the other Senate races focusing their advertising dollars in television. At the conclusion of the 2004 election, over $230 million was spent on senatorial advertising.

Gubernatorial Races
While the total amount of money spent on congressional advertising remains impressive, the real story this year is ballot measures and the unprecedented level of spending by those seeking state office. Gubernatorial advertising has been leading the way. In California, home to some of the country’s most expensive media markets, self-funded Democratic primary candidates spent over $100 million combined in television ads since Jan. 1, 2006 – nearly $80 million during the primary alone. By year’s end, combined with the ballot measures and other state offices, California could very well see stratospheric levels of television advertising exceeding $300 million.

Other gubernatorial elections to watch this cycle, based on CMAG’s projections, include New York, Illinois, Michigan, Georgia, Florida, Ohio and Texas. Each of these races has the potential to yield upwards of $100 million in political television advertising by Election Day 2006.

Interest Groups
Interest groups made quite a name for themselves during the 2004 election and this year they are once again poised to make another significant contribution to the political advertising pool. Over 20 groups, including the state and federal political parties, have spent close to $20 million in television advertising since the beginning of the year. As the balance of power in the federal government and control of vital state offices remain in play, expect interest group spending to be strong leading up to Election Day.

So far, Pennsylvania has been ground zero for interest groups. Support and opposition groups to the re-election of Senator Santorum have spent over $2.4 million combined on television since groups began to air ads in November 2005. Americans for Job Security and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent close to $1.3 million on television ads combined supporting Santorum’s record on taxes, Social Security, and Medicare, while the Lantern Project and the Association of Trial Lawyers have run ads critical of the Senator.

MoveOn.org and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have been the most active sponsors of ads aimed at targeted members of Congress facing competitive elections this cycle. MoveOn.org released several “red-handed” television ads accusing five Republican members of Congress of cozying up to “Big Oil and Big Pharmaceutical Industry.” The US Chamber praised members of Congress and the Senate, Republicans and Democrats alike, for passing the Medicare prescription drug benefit.

Although broadcast TV is the clear leader in political ad spending, other media like Local Cable, Radio and the Internet have also seen gains in ad spending because of their ability to closely target voters, which has tightened inventory levels in many of the battleground states in 2006, and campaigns flush with money.

For a copy of the report or an interview with Evan Tracey, please contact Andrew Foote at 212-931-6169 or afoote@peppercom.com.

About TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG

TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group is the leading provider of advertising tracking and analysis of political, public affairs and issue advocacy advertising. A TNS Media Intelligence company, TNSMI/CMAG provides customized media analysis services to national trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns. For further information, please visit http://www.tnsmi-cmag.com.

About TNS Media Intelligence
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