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June 25, 2002
 
CMR Forecasts Stronger Growth In 2002 Ad Spending Than Previously Predicted
Mid-Year Update Reflects Expectations For a Healthier U.S. Economic Gain and the Better-Than-Expected Upfront Season
 
NEW YORK, June 25, 2002 - Advertising spending is expected to rise 2.5 percent for 2002 to 109.1 billion1, according to the mid-year estimate first released this morning at AdWatch: Outlook 2002™ by CMR, a leading provider of strategic advertising and marketing communications information.

AdWatch: Outlook 2002™, presented by Advertising Age, CMR/ TNS Media Intelligence U.S. and UBS Warburg, is a premier event that offers an unparalleled perspective on the future of advertising, marketing and media. This one-day conference began earlier today at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in New York City.

"We are off to a good start this year, which suggests a rebound over last year," said David Peeler, president and CEO of CMR. "All and all, we can expect three factors to boost the market this year: the impact of the upfront on the broadcast season, the upcoming elections in November and the continued growth of Spanish Language television. Nonetheless, despite the improvement over 2001, full year 2002 will be down 6.7 percent when compared to the high-water mark of 2000."

CMR estimates that total ad spending for the first half of 2002 will show a slight decline, down 0.4 percent compared to the same timeframe in 2001. In retrospect, without the $986 million2 in ad spending on the Winter Olympics, the first half of 2001 would be down 2.2 percent. While improvement in the latter half of the year is expected due to stronger growth during the third and fourth quarters, the second half of 2002 is being compared to the particularly depressed levels of 2001.

2002 QUARTERLY GROWTH TRENDS

Time Period 2002 Percentage Change Versus
2001 2000
First Half -0.4 % (e) -6.1 %
1st Quarter 0.4 % -3.9 %
2nd Quarter -1.1 % (e) -8.1 % (e)
Second Half 6.2 % (e) -7.3 % (e)
3rd Quarter 5.1 % (e) -7.9 % (e)
4th Quarter 7.1 % (e) -6.8 % (e)
Full Year 2.5 % (e) -6.7 % (e)
Source: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence U.S.
(e) = Estimate

GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR 2002 BY MEDIA 3

Media Percent Estimate
Network TV 4.5 %
Spot TV 8.9 %
Cable TV -0.3 %
Syndication -3.2 %
Spanish Language TV (Univision and Telemundo) 10.4 %
Consumer / Sunday Magazines -2.8 %
B2B Magazines -11.4 %
Newspapers (Local) 5.7 %
National Newspapers -1.7 %
Radio (Network, Spot and Local) 6.7 %
Internet 5.3 %
Outdoor -1.0 %
Source: CMR/TNS Media Intelligence U.S.

The upcoming elections in November will provide added spending for spot television, local newspapers and radio advertising across markets in states with significant Congressional and statewide races. For Spanish Language TV, CMR predicts to lead spending in 2002 by 10.4 percent. Peeler noted, "Year-over-year, CMR has tracked a healthy double-digit growth pattern for this medium, which has surprisingly outpaced the trend for the market in general. Interestingly, in the midst of the recession, Spanish Language TV grew by 14 percent."

Overall, 2002 shapes up to be a better year than 2001. Key trends impacting today's advertising marketplace such as, the better-than-expected broadcast upfront, fall elections and the continued growth in Spanish Language TV, will drive the outlook for the market this year.

About CMR
TNS Media Intelligence/CMR, offers strategic advertising and marketing communications information to advertising agencies, advertisers, broadcasters and publishers. The company's tracking technologies collect occurrence and expenditure data, as well as the creative executions of over one million brands across 15 media. CMR is headquartered in New York City and maintains sales locations in major markets throughout the United States.

Within the TNS organization, CMR stands as a key member of TNS Media Intelligence. This group, dedicated to worldwide media analysis, provides advertising expenditure tracking, evaluation and consultative services for broadcast, Internet and print media, in addition to news monitoring capabilities. TNS Media Intelligence is the market leader in the U.S. and France, with significant operations in Europe and Asia. For further information, visit http://www.cmr.com.

Through its international network of 230 offices in more than 50 countries, Taylor Nelson Sofres provides market information services in over 80 countries to national and multi-national organizations. It is ranked as the fourth largest market information group in the world. Further information on Taylor Nelson Sofres is available from the corporate Web site: http://www.tnsofres.com.

1 CMR's mid-year forecast has been expanded to include estimates for Spanish language TV, B2B magazines and local radio. Therefore, this estimate cannot be compared to CMR's previous 2002 forecast of $96.1 billion issued on January 22, 2002, which did not include these media. Mid-year and forward-looking estimates are based on CMR's Stradegy2 multimedia ad expenditure database, across CMR measured markets.

2 Total Winter Olympic figure of $986 million includes spending on network TV, cable TV and spot TV.

3 Mid-year and forward-looking estimates are based on CMR's Stradegy2 multimedia ad expenditure database, across CMR measured markets.