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Golin/Harris International
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News
 
June 16, 2004
 
TNS Media Intelligence/CMR Forecasts 9.3 Percent Increase in U.S. Advertising Spending for 2004
Mid-year forecast released at AdWatch: Outlook 2004 conference shows multiple media segments, including Internet and Spot TV, on strong growth track.
 
NEW YORK, June 16, 2004 - Advertising spending is expected to rise 9.3 percent to $140.3 billion1, according to the mid-year forecast released this morning at AdWatch: Outlook 2004™ by TNS Media Intelligence/CMR, the leading provider of strategic advertising and marketing information.

AdWatch: Outlook 2004™, presented by TNS Media Intelligence/CMR and Advertising Age is the premier industry event that offers an unparalleled perspective on the future of advertising, marketing and media. This one-day conference began earlier today in New York City.

"Advertising spending during the first quarter of 2004 was very strong, as total expenditures increased 9.6 percent to $31.5 billion as compared to the same period in 2003. This robust ad growth is the beginning of what we forecast to be an extremely strong year," said Steven Fredericks, president and CEO of TNS Media Intelligence/CMR. "With the upswing in the economy, the elections and the Olympics, 2004 is shaping up to be a very good year overall."

The first half of 2004 is forecasted to show a growth rate of 9.4 percent, with a growth rate of 9.2 percent expected for the second half of the year. "Other key trends that will impact the healthy advertising outlook include strong growth in the leading ad categories and growth in new brand spending," noted Steven Fredericks.

2004 QUARTERLY GROWTH TRENDS 1

Time Period Change Versus 2003
First Half 2004 9.4% (e)
1st Quarter 2004 9.6%     
2nd Quarter 2004 9.3% (e)
Second Half 2004 9.2%  (e)
3rd Quarter 2004 10.9% (e)
4th Quarter 2004 7.7%  (e)
Full Year 2004 9.3% (e)
Source: TNS Media Intelligence/CMR
(e) = Estimate
1 Figures are based on TNSMI/CMR internal analyses

Two of the key drivers for the year include the political races and the Olympics. Estimates are that political spending will total $1.5 billion in 2004, with $1.3 billion being spent on the elections and $200 million being spent on issue-related ads. Olympic spending will contribute an incremental $850 million, an increase of $100 million over ad spending surrounding the 2000 Sydney games. Overall, these two areas will make significant contributions to third quarter spending.

All TNS Media Intelligence/CMR measured media, with the exception of Business-to-Business Magazines, are expected to show growth for 2004. Internet expenditures are expected to rise 15.8 percent for the year, the highest increase of all media sectors.

GROWTH ESTIMATES FOR 2004 BY INDIVIDUAL MEDIA 1

Media Percent Estimate
INTERNET 15.80%
SPOT TV 14.30%
RADIO (Network, Spot, Local) 11.50%
CABLE NETWORK TV 9.90%
NETWORK TV 9.80%
SYNDICATION 9.80%
OUTDOOR 8.40%
SPANISH LANGUAGE TV 7.00%
MAGAZINES (Consumer and Sunday) 6.40%
NEWSPAPERS (National and Local) 6.40%
MAGAZINES (Business-to-Business) -0.10%
Source: TNS Media Intelligence/CMR
1 Figures are based on TNSMI/CMR internal analyses

About TNS Media Intelligence/CMR
TNS Media Intelligence/CMR is the leading provider of strategic advertising and marketing information - across media, brand, industry and market. The company's tracking technologies collect occurrence and expenditure data on more than 1.9 million brands spanning 20 media. TNS Media Intelligence/CMR is headquartered in New York City and maintains sales locations in major markets throughout the United States.

Within the TNS organization, TNS Media Intelligence/CMR is a key member of the Media Intelligence sector - dedicated to providing worldwide tracking, analysis, evaluation and consultative services for the media and marketing communities. TNS Media Intelligence is the market leader in the U.S. and France, with significant operations in Europe and Asia. For further information, including this and prior press releases, please visit http://www.tnsmi-cmr.com.

About TNS
TNS is one of the world's leading market information groups, providing market measurement, analysis, insight and advice in more than 110 countries. Working with national and multi-national organizations, TNS helps its clients develop effective business strategies and enhance relationships with their customers. Further information on TNS can be found on http://www.tns-global.com.

About AdWatch: Outlook 2004
AdWatch: Outlook 2004 is the third annual conference hosted by Advertising Age and TNS Media Intelligence/CMR that features the exclusive release of first half and full year advertising spending estimates. Key buyers, sellers, agency representatives and analysts participate in panel discussions throughout the conference focusing on the media industry's most pressing issues, including market turnaround, ROI and the future of advertising, marketing and media.